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JP’s Pick of the Day

#JPsPickoftheDay

I will chose who I think will win the match outright for most money line situations.

Bold team is who I like against the spread.

**LOCK PICK** will represent my favorite and guaranteed picks.

Feel free to contact me with any questions via Twitter: @JorelPetree

Current Record: 41-26 (61%)

Underdogs 11-11 (50%)

Favorites 30-15 (67%) 

Locks 21-6 (77%)

 


Date: Saturday July 5,

MGM Grand Garden Arena

Lyota Machida (+180) will beat Chris Weidman (-200)

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**LOCK PICK**

Ronda Rousey (-1600) will beat Alexis Davis (+800)

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Matt Mitrione (+125) will beat Stefan Struve (-155)

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1 PM in Fonte Nova

Netherlands (-200) will beat Costa Rica (+600)

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**LOCK PICK**

9 AM in Roi Baudouin 

Argentina (+116) will beat Belgium (+276)

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Date: Friday July 4,

1 PM PST in Castelao

Brazil vs Colombia will end in a Draw (+277)

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9 AM PST in Maracana

France (+170) will beat Germany (+180)

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Date: Thursday July 3,

4 PM PST in Comerica Park

Detroit Tigers (-172) will beat the Tampa Bay Rays (+162)

[W] Detroit Tigers 8 – Tampa Bay Rays 1

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Date: Wednesday July 2,

7 PM PST in AT&T Park

San Francisco Giants vs ST. Louis Cardinals will go Under 7 (-120)

[W]

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Date: Tuesday July 1,

1 PM PST in Arena Fonte Nova

USA (+250) will beat Belgium (+105)

[L] USA vs Belgium ended in a Draw

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9 AM PST in Arena Corinthians

Switzerland vs Argentina will end in a Draw (+330)

[W]

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Date: Monday June 30,

**LOCK PICK**

1 PM PST in Arena do Gremio 

Germany (-290) will beat Algeria (+950)

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**LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Beira-Rio

France (-189) will beat Nigeria (+650)

[W] France 2 – Nigeria 0

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Date: Sunday June 29,

1 PM PST in Arena Pernambuco

Costa Rica (+145) will beat Greece (+210)

[L] Costa Rica vs Greece ended regulation in a draw 1 – 1

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9 AM PST in Castelao

Netherlands (+114) will beat Mexico (+292)

[W] Netherlands 2 – Mexico 1

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Date: Saturday June 28,

1 PM PST in Maracana

Colombia (-110) will beat Uruguay (+280)

[W] Colombia 2 – Uruguay 0

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9 AM PST in Mineirao

Brazil (-175) will beat Chile (+450)

[L] Brazil won on penalty kicks

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 Date: Friday June 27,

12 PM PST in Citizens Bank Park

Atlanta Braves (-137) will beat the Philadelphia Phillies (+157)

[W] Atlanta Braves 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 2

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Date: Thursday June 26,

9 AM PST in Arena Pernambuco

Germany (-140) will beat USA (+550)

[W] Germany 1 – USA 0

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** LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Nacional de Brasilia

Portugal (-135) will beat Ghana (+275)

[W] Portugal 2 – Ghana 1

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Date: Wednesday June 25,

**LOCK PICK**

1 PM PST in Maracana

France (-125) will beat Ecuador (+325)

[L] France 0 – Ecuador 0

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**LOCK PICK**

1 PM PST in Arena Amazonia

Switzerland (-230) will beat Honduras (+650)

[W] Switzerland 3 – Honduras 0

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**LOCK PICK** 

9 AM PST in Beira Rio

Argentina (-185) will beat Nigeria (+625)

[W] Argentina 3 – Nigeria 2

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Date: Tuesday June 24,

**LOCK PICK**

1PM PST in Arena Pantanal

Colombia (+115) will beat Japan (+250)

[W] Colombia 4 – Japan 1

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9 AM PST in Mineirao

England (-127) will beat Costa Rica (+375)

[L] England 0 – Costa Rica 0

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9 AM PST in Arena das Dunas

Italy vs Uruguay will end in a Draw (+240)

[L] Italy 0 – Uruguay 1

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Date: Monday June 23,

**LOCK PICK**

1 PM PST in Nacional de Brasilia

Brazil (-667) will beat Cameroon (+1300)

[W] Brazil 4 – Cameroon 1

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**LOCK PICK**

12 PM PST in Arena da Baixada

Spain (-255) will beat Australia (+815)

[W] Spain 3 – Australia 0

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**LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Arena de Sao Paulo

Netherlands (+160) will beat Chile (+190)

[W] Netherlands 2 – Chile 0

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Date: Sunday June 22,

3 PM PST in Arena Amazonia

United States (+377) will beat Portugal (-128)

[L] USA 2 – Portugal 2

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9 Am PST in Maracana

Belgium (+130) will beat Russia (+250)

[W] Belgium 1 – Russia 0

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Date: Saturday June 21,

**LOCK PICK**

9 AM in Mineirao

Argentina (-900) will beat Iran (+1800)

[W] Argentina 1 – Iran 0

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12 PM in Castelao

**LOCK PICK**

Germany (-304) will beat Ghana (+945)

[L] Germany 2 – Ghana 2

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Date: Friday June 20

9 AM PST in Arena Pernambuco

Italy (-210) will beat Costa Rica (+550)

[L] Italy 0 – Costa Rica 1

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**LOCK PICK**

12 PM PST in Arena Fonte Nova

France (-125) will beat Switzerland (+325)

[W] France 5 – Switzerland 2

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Date: Thursday June 19,

12 AM PST in de Sao Paulo

England (+195) will beat Uruguay (+169)

[L] England 1 – Uruguay 2

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 **LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Nacional de Brasilia

Colombia (+200) will beat Ivory Coast (+350)

[W] Colombia 2 – Ivory Coast 1

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Date: Wednesday June 18,

**LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Beira-Rio

Netherlands (-257)  will beat Australia (+915)

[W] Netherlands 3 – Australia 2

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12 PM PST in Maracana

Spain (-127) will beat Chile (+460)

[L] Spain 0 – Chile 2

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**LOCK PICK **

3 PM PST in Amazonia

Croatia (+107) will beat Cameroon (+314)

[W] Croatia 4 – Cameroon 0

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Date: Tuesday June 17,

12 PM PST in Castelao

Brazil (-265) will beat Mexico (+960)

[L] Brazil 0 – Mexico 0

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9 AM PST in Mineirao

Belgium (-269) will beat Algeria (+960)

[W] Belgium 2 – Algeria 1

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Date: Monday June 16

12 PM PST in Arena da Baixada

Nigeria (+103) will beat Iran (+341)

[L] Nigeria 0 – Iran 0

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** LOCK PICK **

9 AM PST in Arena Fonte Nova

Germany (+110) will beat Portugal (+245)

[W] Germany 4 – Portugal 0

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Date: Sunday June 15

**LOCK PICK**

5 PM PST in AT&T Center

Miami Heat (+5.5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs

[L] Miami Heat 87 – San Antonio Spurs 104

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3 PM PST in Maracana

**LOCK PICK**

Argentina (-300) will beat Bosnia (+800)

[W] Argentina 2 – Bosnia 1

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**LOCK PICK**

12 PM PST in Beira-Rio

France (-400) will beat Honduras (+1000) by 2+ Goals

[W] France 3 – Honduras 0

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9 AM PST in Mane Garrincha National Stadium

Switzerland (+140) will beat Ecuador (+205)

[W] Switzerland 2 – Ecuador 1

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Date: Saturday June 14,

**LOCK PICK**

9 AM PST in Mineirao

Colombia (-124) will beat Greece (+400)

[W] Colombia 3 – Greece 0

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12 PM PST in Castelao

**LOCK PICK**

Uruguay (-230) will beat Costa Rica (+800)

[L] Uruguay 1 – Costa Rica 3

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3 PM PST in Arena Amazonia

Italy vs England will end in a Draw (+211)

[L] Italy 2 – England 1

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7 PM PST in Rogers Arena 

Rory MacDonald (-110) will beat Tyron Woodley

[W] Won by unanimous decision, 30-27

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**LOCK PICK**

Date: Friday June 13, at 3 PM in Arena Pantanal

Chile (-250) will beat Australia (+750)

[W] Chile 3 – Australia 1

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**LOCK PICK**

Date: Thursday June 12, at 1 PM PST in Arena de Sao Paulo

Brazil (-340) will beat Croatia (+1195)

[W] Brazil 3 – Croatia 1

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**LOCK PICK** Miami Heat ML (-240)

Date: Thursday June 12, at 6 PM PST in American Airlines Arena

Miami Heat (-5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs

[L] Miami Heat 86 – San Antonio Spurs 107

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** LOCK PICK**

New York Rangers ML -140

Date: Wednesday June 11, at 5 PM PST in Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers (-140) will beat the Los Angeles Kings (+120)

[W] New York Rangers 2 – Los Angeles Kings 1

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**LOCK PICK** Miami Heat ML -210

Date: Tuesday June 10, at 6 PM PST in American Airlines Arena

Miami Heat (-4.5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (+4.5)

[L] Miami Heat 92 – San Antonio Spurs 111

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Date: Monday June 9, at 5 PM PST in Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers (-145) will beat the Los Angeles Kings (+125)

[L] New York Rangers 0 – Los Angeles Kings 3

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**LOCK PICK** Heat +4.5

Date: Sunday June 8, at 5 PM PST in AT&T Center

Miami Heat (+4.5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (-4.5)

[W] Miami Heat 98 – San Antonio Spurs 96

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Date: Saturday June 7, at 4 PM PST in Staples Center

New York Rangers (+133) will beat the Los Angeles Kings (-153)

[L] New York Rangers 4 – Los Angeles Kings 5

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Date: Friday June 6, 2014, at 6 PM PST in Comerica Park

Detroit Tigers (-144) will beat the Boston Red Sox (+122)

[W] – Detroit Tigers 6 – Boston Red Sox 2

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Date: Thursday June 5, 2014, at 6 PM PST in AT&T Center

Miami Heat (+5.5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (-5.5)

[L] – Miami Heat 95 – San Antonio Spurs 110

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Date: Wednesday June 4, 2014, at 5 PM PST in Staples Center

New York Rangers (+145) will beat the Los Angeles Kings (-155)

[L] – New York Rangers 4 – Los Angeles Kings 5

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Date: Tuesday June 3, 2014, at 5:10 PM PST in Miller Park

Milwaukee Brewers (-150) will beat the Minnesota Twins (+138)

[L] – Minnesota Twins 6 – Milwaukee Brewers 4

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Date: Monday June 2, 2014, at 7:10 PM PST in Dodger Stadium

Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) will beat the Chicago White Sox (+185)

[W] – Los Angeles Dodgers 5 – Chicago White Sox 2

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Date: Sunday June 1, 2014, at 5 PM PST in United Center

Chicago Blackhawks (-149)  will beat the Los Angeles Kings (+115)

[L] – Chicago Blackhawks 4 – Los Angeles Kings 5

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Date: Saturday May 31, 2014, at 5:30 PM PST in Chesapeake Energy Arena

Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (+3.5)

[L] – San Antonio Spurs 112 – Oklahoma City Thunder 107

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Date: Friday May 30, 2014, at 5:30 PM PST in American Airlines Arena

Miami Heat (-8) will beat the Indiana Pacers (+8)

[W] – Miami Heat 117 – Indiana Pacers 92

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Date: Thursday May 29, 2014, at 6 PM PST in AT&T Center

San Antonio Spurs (-4) will beat the Oklahoma City Thunder (+4)

[W] – Oklahoma City Thunder 89 –  San Antonio Spurs 117

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Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2014, at 5:30 PM PST in Bankers Life Fieldhouse

Indiana Pacers (+1.5) will beat the Miami Heat (-1.5)

[W] – Indiana Pacers 93 – Miami Heat 90

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Date: Tuesday, May 27, 2014, at 6:00 PM. PST in Chesapeake Energy Arena

Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (+2)

[W] – Oklahoma City Thunder 105 – San Antonio Spurs 92

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Date: Monday, May 26, 2014, at 8:30 PM PST in American Airlines Arena

Miami Heat (-6.5) will beat the Indiana Pacers (+6.5)

[W] – Miami Heat 102 – Indiana Pacers 90

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Date: Sunday, May 25, 2014, at 8:30 PM PST in Chesapeake Energy Arena

Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) will beat the San Antonio Spurs (+2)

[W] – Oklahoma City Thunder 106 – San Antonio Spurs 97

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Date: Saturday, May 24, 2014, at 7 PM PST on pay-per-view UFC 173:

TJ Dillashaw (+765) will beat Renan Barao (-1,215)

[W] – Dillashaw won by stoppage came at the 2:22 mark of the final round. (Punches)

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Follow me via Twitter: @JorelPetree

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On the field for game 2 of the World Series

Follow me on Twitter @JorelPetree

It’s almost impossible to describe the last 48 hours of my life, as one of my life long dreams have come true. After game one of the World Series, we had gone to dinner with the Detroit Tigers infield coach Rafael Belliard, for his birthday, at The House of Prime Rib in San Francisco. While waiting for our table, we started talking about our experience at the Detroit Tigers World Series game 1. I became teary eyed and almost started to cry! Read the rest of this entry »

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Will their be a Manning in the Superbowl? Maybe both Manning’s?

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“oh was that 35 unanswered?”

What a wild week 6 in the NFL, as the BYE teams cashed in a perfect 4-0 ATS. There have been some key injuries the past two weeks leaving the Super Bowl run wide open for teams.

– The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 14* is my favorite pick.
– The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
– The CAPITAL team is the home team.

Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up

13 ************* **LOCK**
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11over the New York Jets by 20
Again this year New England is coming off of a loss. This is when they come for blood and blow teams out. Especially when they are facing the New York Jets, a team they are not very fond of.
New England looked great last week against a tough Seahawks defense, in Seattle. The rain came down and it messed up Brady’s timing with his Wide Receivers. He had thrown a lot of balls that were uncatchable. The rain came down and Seattle’s production went up. The Patriots offense is ranked #1 in points for and offensive yards. New York is ranked 18th in rushing yards against, and 18th in total yards against. With out Revis Island, the Jets are in trouble, against the Patriots High Powered offense. Not to mention the Jets commander and chief has a terrible 71 QB rating which is the worst in the NFL. Not a good number verse the leagues leading defense in turnovers. New England will be able to establish the run early and have their way with the Jets. New York is ranked 30th in total yards on offense. If they do not get some early points on the board they will be in a lot of trouble verses the upset Patriots.

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He is not mad… He is furious!
Trends
– NY Jets are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road
– NY Jets are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games when playing New England
– New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
– New England is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Jets
– New England is 28-11 ATS off of a loss

12 ************ **LOCK**
Green Bay Packers -6 over ST. LOUIS RAMS by 14
The Green Bay Packers have finally found their rhythm on offense. It had taken them time to figure out a new game plan around Jordy Nelson. The offense was originally built around Greg Jennings and he had opened up Nelson and their other options. Nelson has now had to learn the X position and become the #1 option, a role he was not used to. This took time but Green Bays offense is now clicking. If and when they get Jennings back, WATCH OUT!! as this offense will steam role. The Rams have played quality defense this year and are ranked 5th in points against. Their big problem is offense as they cannot get a running back into fantasy double digits this year. Dick Jauron is one off the best defensive coaches in the game, he will have a great game plan against the slow Rams offense. They will cause turnovers and get the Packers great field position. Green Bay will d up and their offense completely clicked last week as Rodgers broke his single game record for touchdowns. The Packers will be to much on the scoreboard and 6 points is not enough. They need this win to get back on track and above .500. Green bay heading down to the “show me state” and they will show them what the greatest show on turf really is. Mr. Rodgers in a big victory verse the ST.Louis Rams.

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Aaron Rodgers finds rhythm in record breaking night verse Houston
Trends
– St. Louis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
– St. Louis is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games
– Green Bay is 20-5 SU in its last 25 gam’es

11 ***********
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6 over the Seattle Seahawks by 17
Last week the New York Giants just had San Francisco’s number. They also had a lot of trends in their corner backing up that the 49ers would come out flat. This is a different week as Jim Harbaugh will get these boys back up and ready for a weak Seattle road team. Seattle could only muster up 41 yards with Marshawn Lynch which is a very bad formula to beat the 49ers. The Giants were able to get the first 100 yard rusher against the 49ers stingy run defense in 23 games. Which is the only formula to beat the 49ers. They cover sideline to sideline very well, with Patrick Willis in the middle. He is one of the leagues most dominate line backers. They are coming off of a big loss going home and will be ready for this Seahawks team. Pete Carroll can get his boys ready for a big game at home, but has fallen short both road trips. They lost to Arizona who is 4th in the NFL in points against and St. Louis Rams who are ranked 5th in points against. Seattle struggles on the road with their rookie Quarterback against good defenses. San Francisco is one of the top defenses in the NFL across the board. Harbaugh will be ready to host Seattle, the Hawks wont be flying in Candlestick as the 49ers defense could keep them out of the end zone all night long.

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Patrick Willis flexing on the Seahawks weak offense
Trends
– Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
– San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
– San Francisco is 13-0 off a SU favorite loss (recently 34-0 over NYJ)

10 ********** **LOCK**
New Orleans Saints -3 over the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS by 13
Now back to back weeks for the Saints, I am locking them up. A key addition on defense comes back this week and he is pissed off. Jonathan Vilma will spark the Saints defense, he is exactly what they have been missing. They had a slow rough start this year, and lost to a couple below average teams. In those battles I have seen some great things from Brees on film, and some aggressive mistakes defensively. I always believed on defense if your going to make a mistake, make it aggressively. The Saints are very close now to being the team we are used to seeing over the past few years. They are coming off of a bye and heading down to Tampa Bay in a must win. With this win it can potentially move them into a three way tie for 2nd in the NFC South and get them back on track to winning. (if Carolina wins) New Orleans is ranked #1 on the road at passing. Tampa Bay is ranked 20th at home defending the pass. I think Brees is licking his chops this week studying the Bucs game film. Tampa Bay may have looked like a tough team last week, but they were coming off of a bye and had to stop a one dimensional team in Kansas City. Charles has been their only hope on offense and Greg Schiano drew up a great run defensive game plan to handle the Chiefs. Home Field will not play a big factor in this 3 point spread. The Saints are coming for a big win and off of a bye you better believe the Surgeon lays Tampa Bay’s defense on the table, and gets these boys rolling.

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Will Vilma be the spark that New Orleans has been missing on defense?
Trends
– New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
– Tampa Bay is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
– Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans

9 *********** LOCK** *UPSET ALERT*
Detroit Lions +6 over CHICAGO BEARS by 3
Detroit played tough and they actually have hope in their secondary with Louis Delmas back in the lineup. The Lions also can get good pressure on the Quarterback with just their four down lineman. Cutler has been getting hit a lot this year, and if the Lions can get to him early they can really frustrate Cutler on primetime TV. The Bears have only covered 6 points once in their last 4 meetings. The Lions are on revenge here going down to Chicago remembering last years 13 to 37 blow out. The Lions will need to play all four quarters in this match up or the game could get out of hand quick. They have been a great second half team, and seem to try and win every game in the closing minuets. One thing Detroit has going for them is they are ranked 9th in total yards against. The Bears have not dominated offense at all this year, with Delmas back in the lineup the Detroit defense will step up to the occasion. The Lions know they have to contain Brandon Marshall, if they do this they will be able to keep this a close game and potentially win late in the game. On paper this might not look like a very good matchup for the Lions, but I have seen very sloppy play out of the Bears and Detroit is slowly but surely coming together as a team. Bell and Leshoure have been a great compliment to each other as they are averaging 3.75 yards per carry. If the Lions pull this victory it evens out the NFC North and will bring everyone within 1 game of first. This is a great Monday Night matchup the Lions will keep it close and try to revenge their big loss last year with an upset.

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Can the Lions high powered offense get out to an early lead on Chicago?
Trends
– Detroit is 6-0 ATS in division Monday night games
– Chicago is 0-7 ATS as home favorites on Monday night

8 ******** *UPSET ALERT*
Baltimore Ravens +7 over Houston Texans by 3
This is the game that Joe Flacco gets to silence his critics. He has big game experience and showed they could move the ball through the air on the toughest secondary in football. Baltimore creates match up problems in the passing game, just like the Packers and will be able to move the chains. One key stat in this match up is that the Baltimore Ravens average almost 1 more yard per carry then the Houston Texans. Houston averages 3.8 yards per carry below the Ravens 4.7 per carry, while both defenses allow 3.8 yards per carry. Houston loosing Brian Cushing makes me believe the Ravens can have their way in the ground game, an addition to what the Packers were able to bring to the table. Houston’s home passing rank of 21st needs to improve in this matchup for the Texans to have success. Baltimore with the big game experience is getting to many points and has a potential upset in the making.

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Can Ray Rice and the Ravens Ride out their 4.8 yards per carry in an upset?
– Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
– Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
– Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

7 *******
NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington by 10
The Giants offense is hitting on all cylinders, it looks as if the Manning brothers are taking the league over. New York is still on “Cruz Control” and they just embarrassed the 49ers at San Francisco. The Giants have been on the road in three of their last four games. They will be happy coming home with confidence and hosting the leagues last ranked pass defense in yards against. Eli is going to have a feild day, with Domenik Hixon stepping up and Hakeem Nicks coming into this week healthy. Washington has been surviving on the legs of RG3, which they meet their match in New York as the Giants stay active with their front seven defenders. They will be able to contain and slow down RG3 and the Redskins offense, enough for the Giants to light up the score board and take a big double digit home win.

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Can the Giants D Line contain RG3?
– NY Giants are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games
– NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
– Washington is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games

6 ****** *UPSET ALERT*
CAROLINA PANTHERS +2 over Dallas Cowboys by 3
This year the Dallas Cowboys have had a turnover ratio of -8. Carolina showed some signs of life on defense two weeks ago verses the Seattle Seahawks. They forced four turnovers in their last two games, three of those verses Seattle. Carolina has two weeks to prepare for Dallas and will be ready. Not to mention Dallas was very generous to Ray Rice last week on the road. Carolina does well when they are able to get their running game going. They do look terrible on paper, but they have faced three opponents this year who average close to 28 points a game. The other two Seattle and Tampa Bay they were able to hold to 16 points on defense. Cam Newton plus the points at home with rest. Carolina is looking to prove they can contend and this is a great week to do that verse an average Dallas Cowboys team.

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Can the Carolina defense cause enough turnovers to take the home upset verses Dallas?

5*****
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -6 over Arizona Cardinals by 7
Minnesota has dominated this series as they have taken 8 out of the last 10 from Arizona. One key stat is the Arizona Cardinals are 19th in the league at stopping the run. Adrian Peterson will be looking to have a huge day. Arizona has now shown their true colors by dropping two strait to average opponents. The Buffalo Bills and the St. Louis Rams, who were a great test for them offensively as the Rams are playing solid defense this year. Also defensively against the Bills who are electric on offense. They were not able to handle either test, which will make them fall to 4-3 against a great Minnesota Vikings team at home. Arizona has only played well at home and even than they struggle offensively. They are one dimensional as they have not found a running game, this will make it easy for the Vikings to key on Larry Fitzgerald and force punts.

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Can Minnesota contain Larry Fitzgerald and frustrate the Arizona offense?
Trends
– Arizona is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
– Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota
– Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
– Leslie Frazier is 4-0 ATS when playing off a SU favorite loss

4 ****
BUFFALO BILLS -3 over Tennessee Titans by 6
The Bills have many options on offense and can attack you in many ways. This will be a high scoring game as these are the two worst overall defenses in the league. Buffalo has more rhythm and confidence on offense, this will be the difference maker in this matchup. Tennessee did show signs off life in the running game against the Steelers, but I am not sold on an offense that is giving their rookie the most targets in the passing game. Buffalo will coast to victory and light it up offensively chomping up yards in both the running and passing game.

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Can the Bills offense out perform the Titans offense? In this battle of the NFL’s two worst defenses
Trends
– Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
– Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
– Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
– Mike Munchak is 0-5 ATS after a SU ATS win

3 ***
OAKLAND RAIDERS over Jacksonville Jaguars by 6
The Oakland Raiders last week came out with a great defensive plan to rattle one of the leagues best passers Matt Ryan, who had a combined total of 3 interceptions. The Raiders are average on defense, but they host the NFL’s worst offense in Jacksonville Jaguars Not to mention the 25th offense in points for. Oakland has been heating up and battled Pittsburgh at home. They are coming off of a great game verse Atlanta and proved they can play in a big game verse one of the NFL’s best teams. The Raiders crowd will play a key factor and they should be able to keep the Jaguars score to a minimum. The Jaguars are not very good at stopping the run as they are ranked 30th in rushing yards against. Darren McFadden is going to have a monster day and potentially finish the #1 Fantasy Football RB this week. The Raiders should be able to control the clock, get an early lead and cover the 4 points.

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Will Darren McFadden slice up the Jaguars terrible defense?
Trends
– Jacksonville is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
– Jacksonville when playing outside the division are 2-8

2**
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 over Cincinnati by 4
The Steelers were caught by surprise last week as Tennessee found their running game with Chris Johnson. They were also able to stop the Steelers from establishing a run. Mike Tomlin will have the Steelers ready with four extra days to prepare. Pittsburgh will get pressure on Andy Dalton and be able to force turnovers. Cincy has not been to stellar on defense allowing 61 points in the divison so far. This is a must win for the Steelers and perfect timing to make a statement verse a struggling Cincinnati Bengals, who have now dropped two strait.

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Can the Steelers establish a running game early?
Trends
– Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
– Cincinnati is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games
– Mike Tomlin is 14-7 ATS off of a loss and 9-1 the last 10
– Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 verses Cincy

1*
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 over Cleveland Browns by 6
The Colts have done very well at defending the pass at home. They also are passing very well at home, with a great second half come back against a tough Green Bay Packers team. Andrew Luck is the x factor in this matchup. He is starting to settle down and play football. One scary stat is the colts letting up five yards a carry, and Trent Richardson could take full advantage. There is only so much you can do in the running game and that’s where Luck will make up for the difference. Yes last week the browns pulled the home upset, but the Bengals are not playing great football right now. This should be an easy victory for the Colts.

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Good luck Cleveland
Trends
– Cleveland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
– Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland

Follow me on twitter for updates and Q&A @JorelPetree

Currently have 116* out of 215*
Current Record 20-14
Lock Picks are 5-3

Especially if your “Manning” me
Peyton is back with full force and exploiting teams man to man defenses.

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The word can’t is poison, and one of the worst words that humans can use. Yes, that text from an “NFL Veteran Scout” is partially correct. When you enter your first game off of a major surgery. “You can’t throw the ball” as well, as you would when you are healed. Not to mention sitting out a whole year. It is a process and takes time as the season goes on, you will develop and regain confidence in your self and your body. Plus it takes time to find offensive timing and rhythm.
One thing that you “can’t” do is say he is done. Clearly John Elway who has a history of success in the NFL, and their ownership believed Peyton Manning would be fine. With a 5 year $96 million dollar contract. They knew who they were getting. As the last two years have unfolded, I could do nothing but sit back and laugh at everyone hating on Peyton.
Not only is Peyton Manning the commander of a top NFL offense. He has a team in position to make a strong Super Bowl run. With Key injuries the past few weeks, the AFC is wide open. Peyton and the Denver Broncos, in the first 8 weeks of the 2012 NFL season are set up with a nightmare of a schedule. A couple of those games came down to the defense needing one last stand. With Peyton Manning coming off of a major surgery and learning a whole new offense this year. Sitting at 3-3 on top of their division is well above expectations. The scariest thing about Denver… they are only getting better!

“Peyton Manning won’t be able to play again”

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Peyton Manning taking a hit from Pittsburgh Steelers Larry Foote… Don’t be Peyton on me…

“Peyton Manning can’t throw the ball”

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2012 League Ranks:
– 2nd in NFL in TD (14)
– 4th in NFL in CMP% (67.8)
– 2nd in NFL in YDS (1,808)
– 2nd in NFL in RAT (105.0)
Ranked 2nd, 4th, 2nd and 2nd… Don’t be Peyton on me…

Week 6 is when I make my final four predictions every year. This year you better believe I am not ‘Peyton” on denver. There is no hate here as I think one of the NFL’s best Quaterbacks to ever play the game will make a strong Super Bowl run, adding more Super Bowl Rings as a Denver Bronco.

The moral of this story…
Do not let someone ever tell you that you can’t, when deep down inside you know you can.

Week 6 in the NFL feels like the week of the “UNDERDOG.” Five of the fourteen games have an Upset Alert on them. There are some teams that are just clicking, some teams looking to improve and others seeking revenge.

– The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 14* is my favorite pick.
– The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
– The CAPITAL team is the home team.

Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up

14************Star and **LOCK** Upset Alert
Denver Broncos +3 over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS by 14
Talk about being fed to the Lions, Peyton Manning in his first 5 games as a Bronco has had to face; New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. All four teams have a combined record of 15-4. This is just bad timing for a below average Chargers team to host the Broncos. Denver Broncos clicked offensively, and they will take their frustration out on a weak Chargers secondary. The Broncos bring the much better football team to San Diego. Its Monday Night Peyton Manning should never be an underdog.

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Peyton Manning taking frustration out on the Chargers on Monday Night football.

• No Key Injuries

• Trends
– Peyton Manning is 17-8 SU in his career when entering a contest with a losing record.
– Peyton Manning 8-0 SU in his career as a favorite or DOG of less than 3 points on Monday Night.

13*************Star and **LOCK**
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 over TENNESSEE TITANS by 13
Pittsburgh is ranked 16th in points for and also points against on defense. The Steelers will win this Thursday night match-up, with their veteran play. It is a short week for both teams, and the Titans are still trying to find themselves, as they are ranked 28th in rushing yards against and 25th in pass yards against on defense. Not to mention dead last in points against. It does not look good for them as they are 30th in the league in rushing yards The Steelers defense has been tough, this year even with injuries. They are 11th in rushing yards against, and 3rd in the league at stopping the pass. They are currently ranked 26th in the NFL in rushing yards and they found their running game last week with Rashard Mendenhall.(who had 16 fantasy points in standard leagues last week) It looks like a breakout party for the Steelers with perfect timing on national TV Thursday.

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Mendenhall sparked the Steelers run game.

• Key Injuries
– Troy Polomalu is out
– Lamar Woodly looks doubtful
– James Harrison as of Monday has a little bit of swelling, but should be able to play.

12************Star and **LOCK**
New England Patriots -4 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS by 11
It took a few weeks for the Patriots to get all of their youngsters on the same page. This team is back to its old ways, and changing the game offensively. The Patriots line up and show run, and come out with a pass play. They then will come out in a pass formation and run the ball. New England has finally established the run and is hitting on all cylinders. Seattle plays great special teams and defense at home, but they simply cannot score enough points to get a W verses this heavy weight. The Patriots are physical on defense and have forced 14 turnovers this year, thats a recipe for disaster as the Patriots look to rattle rookie Quarterback Russell Wilson. New England will be ready for Marshawn Lynch, Seattle will need a big day from him to have a chance. The Patriots win big and cruise to 4-2 on the year.

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Are the New England Patriots a Juggernaut?

• Key Injuries
– Julian Edelman and Aaron Hernandez are both questionable.

• Trends
– New England is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
– New England is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

11***********Star and **LOCK**
New York Giants +5 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS by 1
The defending Super Bowl Champions have the 2nd overall scoring offense in the League.
“Ahmad Bradshaw, in an interview on @987espnNY, said he got a “hint” about whether Hakeem Nicks will play Sunday” This offense is in Cruz control and rolling. Hakeem Nicks has ben their #1 Wide Receiver since he has joined the Gmen. They are dangerous and cause match-up nightmares. The 49ers look like gold, especially at home, but the Defending Champs are on fire offensively. Not to mention, history shows the 49ers are vulnerable after back to back big wins.

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Is New York Giants offense on “CRUZ CONTROL?”
• Key Injuries
– Hakeem Nicks Questionable, rumor on twitter is he will play.
– Martellus Bennett Questionable

• Trends
– There are three teams that have covered the spread by 30 or more points in 2 consecutive games. All three lost the third game SU.
– Super Bowl champions are 13-6 SU as road underdogs versus opponents off two consecutive against the spread wins.
– Defending Champs are 8-1 SU if their opponent is off a win of more than 17 points

10**********Star UPSET ALERT
Minnesota Vikings +6 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS by 3
This is a weird game and by no means should the Minnesota Vikings be underdogs. The Washington Redskins are ranked 4th in the league in rushing yards. Which is their strength, RG3 is going to play but he is coming off of a concussion. You better believe Washington will be calling conservative plays on offense to keep their rookie healthy.
Minnesota has played amazing defense this year and are 6th in the league in rushing yards against. The Vikings have been balance on offense and can attack in many ways. Washington is 31st in the league in pass yards against. The Vikings Match up very well, on both sides of the ball. They should be able to handle Washington in week 6. Not only will the Vikings cover, this has upset all over it. Fantasy owners, here is your AP break out party!

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Will A.P have a big break out game vs Washington’s poor run D?
• Key Injuries
– Robert Griffin is Questionable but cleared to play

• Trends
– Washington has lost 8 straight at home
– Washington has lost game six 7 years in a row
– Minnesota is 6-1 SU against the NFC East
– Vikings won the last 3 @ Washington

9*********Star
BALTIMORE RAVENS -4 over the Dallas Cowboys by 7
This is going to be a great match-up to watch. Baltimore’s is ranked 1st in the league at passing, with an average of 342 yards per game at home. Dallas’s has the1st ranked passing defense on the road with an average of 160 yards against. Dallas has been terrible at running the ball so far this year. They are averaging 66 yards per carry. Demarco Murray Fantasy owners have been upset. If you don’t establish a running game in Baltimore then your not going to get much offense of production. Baltimore at home as they improve to 5-1 on the season.

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Ray Rice will need to have a big day against Dallas for Baltimore to win
• No Key Injuries

8********Star
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over the Detroit Lions +5 by 3
The Eagles won 4 of their 6 games by a total of 6 points. They are only averaging 16 points per game this year struggling on offense. One key stat in this game is Detroit averages just over 3 yards a carry. They will be able to control the ball use play action and leave themselves with short third down situations. Mikel Leshoure is healthy and will be an x factor in this game. The Lions are coming off two weeks rest and are all healthy. If the Eagles do not find any rhythm early, the Lions could bust this game open and take control of the scoreboard. Detroit is 11th in the league at scoring and 3rd in the league in total yards. The Lions are looking to get a WIN down in Philly and Upset the Eagles. 5 points is to many in this matchup

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Can Mikel Leshoure be the x factor?
• No Key Injuries

• Trends
– Mathew Stafford is 4-1 against the NFC East
– Philly is 1-5 against the NFC North the past 3 years

7*******Star
ATLANTA FALCONS -9 over Oakland Raiders by 11
Oakland Raiders are traveling from the West Coast, to the East. It is a 1 P.M EST which is 10 A.M PST and their bodies still feel the morning. Atlanta has established themselves as one of the NFL’s best teams. The Raiders are in way over their head here, their pass Defense lets up an average of 31 points, this does not look good verse the high powered Atlanta offense. Raiders offense is ranked 29th in the league at scoring. Atlanta will not over look Oakland as they have a bye next week. This game could easily get out of control with the “Dirty Birds” in a potential blow out.

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Matt Ryan quoted “I have three WR’s who can get the ball at 11 feet!

• Trends
– Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
– Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

6******Star Upset Alert
CLEVELAND BROWNS +3 over the Cincinnati Bengals by 1
The Cleveland Browns are 0-5 and desperately trying to find a win. What a perfect situation when the Browns host Cincy as home DOGs seeking revenge from week 2. The Browns put up their season high with 439 total yards that week. Cleveland can control the clock and move the sticks with their running back Trent Richardson who also has four Touchdowns in his last four games. Trent has been very solid and he opens up the play action. Cincy is 19th in the league in rushing yards against and 22nd on the road letting up 131 yards a game. Trent Richardson is the x factor with Home Revenge as the Browns finally get their first win of the year.

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Trent Richardson is having a big Rookie season. Can he carry the Browns to their first win?

• No Key Injuries
– Mohammed Massaquoi looks as if he will be back this week. In the first couple games it seemed like Weedan trusted him the most.

• Trends
– Cincinnati is 3-8-3 ATS in its last 14 games
– Cincinnati is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
– Cleveland is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
– Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS on the road in the division as a favorite

5*****Star
HOUSTON TEXANS over Green Bay Packers +4 by 3
The whole Country is going nuts on the hype of J.J Watts, who has 8.5 sacks. Green Bay has an ace up their sleeve on defense with Clay Mathews, who has 8 sacks. Green Bay has played solid defense this year, their problem has been with the Quarterback play. Aaron Rodgers said him self that he has to step up and play better. The Texans showed that they are human with a close game verse the sloppy New York Jets. The Pack has big game experience, and they need this win.

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Will the Aaron Rodgers of last year show up?

Key Injuries
– Greg Jennings has been upgraded to questionable.
– Cedric Benson is on IR
– Kushing on IR

4****Star Upset Alert
ST. Louis Rams +3 1/2 over the MIAMI DOLPHINS by 3
Rookie Quarterbacks this season are 0-5 SU and ATS this year when going into a game as the favorite. The Rams have had a fairly tough schedule, both of their losses came on the road and they dished out Arizona their first loss of the year. Cortland Finnegan is a great matchup in man coverage on Miami’s top wide receiver Brian Hartline. The Rams will be able to fill the box and keep Reggie Bush contained. If the Rams can get Steven Jackson going they may leave South Beach with and upset win.

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Steven Jackson needs to have a big day for the Rams to upset the Dolphins

• No Key Injuries

No Good Trends

3***Star
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 1/2 over the Kansas City Chiefs by 4
Jamaal Charles has been electric this year and looks unstoppable as KC holds the #2 spot in rushing yards this year. Charles has put the Chiefs offense on his back, but this week Tampa Bay is coming off of a bye with the 4th ranked NFL defense in rushing yards against. Tampa Bay with two weeks to prepare will be ready for Charles.

• Key Injuries
– Matt Castle has not been ruled out but it looks like he is not going to play.
– Peyton Hillis upgraded to questionable
• Trends
– Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
– Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
– Tampa Bay is 10-13 with two weeks to prepare

2**Star Upset Alert
ARIZONA CARDINALS over the Buffalo Bills +5 by 1
The Arizona Cardinals have now lost their #1 and #2 Running Backs this year. Which makes their poor offense even worse, as now they are 1 dimensional. They have not recorded over 300 yards of offense once this year. The Bills are averaging 20 points a game on the road, and finally will have a healthy running game. Buffalo will keep it close with a potential upset in Arizona.

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The Bills backfield is healthy and ready to take on the Miami rush defense.

• Key Injuries
– Both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams are both out and placed on IR

• Trends
– Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

1*Star
NEW YORK JETS -3 over Indianapolis Colts by 7
The Colts are surprisingly playing solid football this year. Their last three games have been at Lucas Oil but now they go on the road to New York. The Jets battled with arguably the best team in the AFC, showing signs of life in New York. The fly boys surprisingly with their injuries in the secondary do not let the ball fly very well at home as they are ranked 5th at stopping the pass on defense. The Jets will be able to handle Andrew Luck and the 6th overall passing offense in yards, as the Colts are ranked 31st in the league in rushing yards on the road. Rex Ryan wont fear the play action or even have to fill the box on running downs. This is a great opportunity for the Jets to show improvement as they host the Colts.

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Tebow hears the crowd booing Sanchez and rooting for him, but does Rex Ryan care?

• Key Injuries
– Vontae Davis, Nick Mangold, Kendrick Ellis, and Dustin Keller all Questionable

• Trends
– Indianapolis is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
– Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
– Indianapolis is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
– NY Jets are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home
– NY Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
– Rookie Quarterbacks this year are 9-15 strait up

Currently have 61* out of 110*
Current Record 11-7
Lock Picks are 3-1

Follow me on twitter for updates and Q&A @JorelPetree

Tim Tebow should better be known as the Bible Baller. While he played football at Florida he would write John 3:16 into his eye black.
For God so loved the world, that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him shall not perish, but have eternal life.

Last year against the Steelers Tebow threw for a season high 316 yards and set an NFL record with 31.6 yards per completion.

Tonight Tim Tebow plays in the 666th Monday Night Football game on ESPN.

This may be the night we see Tim Tebow take over the starting job in New York.

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Follow @JorelPetree on Twitter

– The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread.  10********** and 9********* are my lock picks of the week.
– The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread.  (ATS)
– The CAPITAL team is the home team.

Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up

All lines will be used from Bovada

10 ********** Lock of the WEEK

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 over San Diego Chargers by 13
Yes the Saints are 0-4 and have one of the worst defenses in the league.  Drew Brees is still on fire.  Marques Colston finally got involved last week with a big game.  The Saints were in the game verse Green Bay and really, were one call away from winning.  It looks as if they are finally meshing as a whole.  This team might not be the powerhouse of the past few years, but they are still a very talented team.  Do not be fooled by their record, it was a slow start this year, with off season distractions.  They will start to role here week 5 with a big win at home over the Chargers. Read the rest of this entry »